# US summer heat and Maui weather/surf outlook

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/us-summer-heat-and-rain-outlook
> Updated: 2026-08-10T08:00:07.000Z. Sources: 10. Developments: 4.

Late July forecasts projected extreme heat across the U.S. mainland, with daytime highs of 100 °F–107 °F, low‑moderate rain chances (15‑18 %) and occasional thunderstorms, while overnight lows stayed in the mid‑70s. Maui was expected to be cooler, with highs of 80 °F–90 °F, frequent showers and rain probabilities of 40‑70 %.

By early August, the outlook remained consistent on the mainland, still calling for low‑to‑mid‑100 °F highs and thunderstorms early in the week, but with a 100 % rain probability on Saturday and a later drop in rain chances to 1‑24 %. Maui’s forecast shifted toward sunnier, breezier conditions, with highs in the upper 70s‑mid‑80s, isolated to scattered showers and reduced rain chances of 20‑50 %.

By August 7, Maui's weather trended toward breezy and mostly sunny conditions with isolated showers. High temperatures in the region were expected to range between 79 and 89 degrees Fahrenheit. While most areas expected isolated showers, the North Shore faced the possibility of locally heavy rainfall during Sunday morning hours, while the Upcountry region anticipated mostly sunny conditions with morning scattered showers and afternoon isolated showers.

By August 10, Maui's weather and surf conditions were forecast to shift significantly. High temperatures were expected to rise sharply, reaching between 93 and 104 degrees Fahrenheit. Marine conditions were also changing, with south-facing shores experiencing overlapping south swells. A moderate long-period south swell was anticipated to arrive on Wednesday and remain elevated through Friday, potentially triggering a High Surf Advisory. Additionally, a developing tropical system could influence swell patterns from the southeast to the east later in the week.

## Timeline

### 2026-08-10: Maui weather and surf forecast predicts rising temperatures and swells

Maui expects high temperatures up to 104°F and building south swells, with a potential High Surf Advisory expected between Wednesday and Friday.

5 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/maui-weather-and-surf-forecast-predicts-rising-temperatures-and-swells

### 2026-08-07: Maui weather forecast predicts breezy conditions and isolated showers

Maui expects breezy and mostly sunny weather with isolated showers and highs ranging from 79 to 89 degrees.

6 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/maui-weather-forecast-predicts-breezy-conditions-and-isolated-showers

### 2026-08-02: Maui and Mainland US Weather Outlook for Early August 2026

Maui expects sunny, breezy weather with highs in the 80s and 20‑50 % rain chance, while the U.S. mainland faces 100‑plus °F highs, thunderstorms and high rain probabilities early in the week.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/maui-and-mainland-us-weather-outlook-for-early-august-2026

### 2026-07-28: US Weather Forecasts Show High Temperatures and Rising Rain Chances

US forecasts show extreme heat up to 107 °F with modest rain chances, while Maui expects 80‑90 °F highs and 40‑70 % rain probability.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/us-weather-forecasts-show-high-temperatures-and-rising-rain-chances

---
Cite as: US summer heat and Maui weather/surf outlook. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/us-summer-heat-and-rain-outlook