# Victorian state election political landscape

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/victorian-state-election-political-landscape
> Updated: 2026-10-10T20:02:37.000Z. Sources: 5. Developments: 2.

Leading up to the November state election in Victoria, major political figures have addressed the possibility of a minority government. Premier Ben Carroll stated he would rule out a deal with the Greens, while Opposition leader Jess Wilson declined discussions regarding support from One Nation, focusing instead on a majority government through the Liberal and National coalition.

However, recent polling from the Resolve Political Monitor suggests a shifting landscape where the Coalition leads the Labor Party in primary votes, with 28 per cent compared to Labor’s 25 per cent. One Nation maintains 23 per cent support, and the Victorian Greens have seen a 3-point increase. 

Leadership popularity has also fluctuated; Premier Ben Carroll’s personal popularity rating dropped 9 points to minus 11, while Jess Wilson’s likeability rose by 4 points to 23. Key election drivers include the economy, crime, and financial management.

## Claims

- Labor's primary support is at 25 per cent (corroborated by 3 sources)
- One Nation's primary support is at 23 per cent (corroborated by 3 sources)
- The Coalition's primary support is at 28 per cent (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Premier Ben Carroll's personal popularity rating has dropped 9 points to minus 11 (corroborated by 2 sources)
- Opposition Leader Jess Wilson's personal likeability rose 4 percentage points to 23 (corroborated by 2 sources)
- The Victorian Greens saw a 3-point increase in primary support (corroborated by 2 sources)

## Timeline

### 2026-10-10: Victoria election: Coalition leads Labor in latest polling

Polling for the upcoming Victorian election shows the Coalition leading Labor in primary votes, while Premier Ben Carroll's popularity declines and Opposition Leader Jess Wilson's rises.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/victoria-election-coalition-leads-labor-in-latest-polling

### 2026-10-09: Victorian leaders rule out minority government deals

Victorian political leaders Ben Carroll and Jess Wilson have both declined to discuss potential minority government deals with minor parties ahead of the November state election.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/victorian-leaders-rule-out-minority-government-deals

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Cite as: Victorian state election political landscape. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/victorian-state-election-political-landscape