# Weather volatility and DANA risks in Spain

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/weather-volatility-and-dana-risks-in-spain
> Updated: 2026-10-08T15:06:00.000Z. Sources: 10. Developments: 3.

Weather forecasts for Spain have highlighted the potential for extreme weather events driven by DANA (isolated high-altitude depression) systems.

In late September, forecaster Jorge Rey used traditional ‘cabañuelas’ methods to predict a high-risk date of November 14 for a DANA event that could bring heavy rainfall to the Levante region, specifically the Comunitat Valenciana. Rey suggested that significant winter weather might not arrive until December, contrasting with official AEMET projections of an unusually warm autumn.

By early October, meteorological models indicated the possible formation of a new DANA southwest of the Iberian Peninsula. Meteorologist Andrea Danta noted that a trough moving across the peninsula could trigger a system near North Africa, potentially bringing heavy rain and thunderstorms to Andalucía, Ceuta, Melilla, and the Canary Islands. While Aemet initially maintained a stable forecast for Andalucía, uncertainty remained regarding whether the system would stabilize between the Gulf of Cádiz and the Canary Islands.

By October 8, projections indicated the DANA would form between the Gulf of Cádiz and the Canary Islands on Thursday, remaining in that area through Saturday before moving east over North Africa. The Canary Islands were expected to experience significant rainfall starting October 9, with heavy showers possible in mountainous areas. On the mainland, lighter showers were anticipated in southern and eastern Andalusia, specifically affecting Cádiz, Málaga, and Granada, as well as Ceuta, Melilla, and the Balearic Islands. Additionally, temperatures were expected to drop as cold polar air entered the country.

## Timeline

### 2026-10-08: Weather system brings rain to Spain and Canary Islands

A new DANA weather system is set to bring rain and thunderstorms to the Canary Islands and southern Spain, including Andalusia, during the Puente del Pilar long weekend.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/weather-system-brings-rain-to-spain-and-canary-islands

### 2026-10-06: Andalucía faces potential heavy rain from new DANA

A potential new DANA could bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to Andalucía and the Canary Islands starting Thursday, though official forecasts currently remain more stable.

7 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/andaluca-faces-potential-heavy-rain-from-new-dana

### 2026-09-23: Jorge Rey predicts potential DANA and winter weather for Spain

Using traditional ‘cabañuelas’ methods, Jorge Rey predicts a potential DANA event with heavy rains in the Levante region around November 14 and the arrival of winter cold in December.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/jorge-rey-predicts-potential-dana-and-winter-weather-for-spain

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Cite as: Weather volatility and DANA risks in Spain. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/weather-volatility-and-dana-risks-in-spain