# West African cocoa supply decline

> Live situation record from CLSTR: https://clstr.news/situations/west-african-cocoa-supply-decline
> Updated: 2026-07-31T04:05:00.000Z. Sources: 3. Developments: 2.

In early July 2026, market observers noted that worries over West African cocoa supplies were lifting prices to a six‑month high. By the end of the month, Ghana’s cocoa board released a detailed forecast showing a minimum 16 % drop in the 2026‑27 harvest. The decline was linked to El Niño‑driven excessive rains, the crop’s biennial bearing cycle, swollen‑shoot disease, ageing trees and damage from illegal gold‑mining in the Western and Western North regions. In response, COCOBOD announced farm rehabilitation, expanded pesticide spraying and a nationwide free‑fertiliser programme. The outlook echoed a broader regional trend, with Ivory Coast also expected to see double‑digit production falls, underscoring mounting supply pressures across West Africa.

## Timeline

### 2026-07-31: Ghana cocoa output projected to fall 16% in 2026‑27 season

COCOBOD projects Ghana’s cocoa output to drop at least 16% in 2026‑27 due to El Niño, disease, ageing farms and illegal gold mining, prompting remedial spraying and free‑fertiliser measures.

3 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/ghana-cocoa-output-projected-to-fall-16-in-202627-season

### 2026-07-07: West African Cocoa Supply Worries Push Prices to Six‑Month High

Cocoa prices hit six‑month highs as heavy rain and disease risk in Ivory Coast and Ghana threaten supplies, while a possible Super El Niño adds further stress.

2 sources. https://clstr.news/cluster/west-african-cocoa-supply-worries-push-prices-to-sixmonth-high

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Cite as: West African cocoa supply decline. CLSTR, https://clstr.news/situations/west-african-cocoa-supply-decline