1960 scientific study used mathematical provocation regarding population growth

A 1960 study published in the journal Science by physicist Heinz von Foerster and colleagues, Patricia Mura and Lawrence Amiot, gained renewed attention due to its provocative title, “Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A. D. 2026”. The researchers used a hyperbolic mathematical model based on historical population data to suggest that human population growth would reach a singularity—theoretically approaching infinity—on that specific date.

The authors clarified that the date was not a prediction of a physical apocalypse, but rather a mathematical demonstration of where their specific model would cease to make sense. The choice of Friday, November 13, was a piece of scientific humor, as it coincided with von Foerster’s birthday.

Recent analysis by physicist Victor Yakovenko of the University of Maryland, published in Physica Apropos, re-examined these trends. Yakovenko found that while human population growth followed von Foerster’s hyperbolic pattern between 1700 and 2000, the curve is now bending toward a peak rather than heading toward infinity. This suggests that while the mathematical singularity predicted for 2026 is not a literal end to the world, it marks a point where historical growth dynamics must fundamentally shift.