2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast Calls for Below‑Normal Activity; June Hurricanes Rare in Florida

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts a 55% chance of a below‑normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, with an 8‑14 named storm outlook, three to six hurricanes and one to three major hurricanes. A strong El Niño is expected to suppress storm development, limiting the likelihood of landfall along the U.S. Atlantic coast.

Historical data show June to be one of the quietest months for tropical cyclones in Florida. Since 1972, only six hurricanes have struck the state in June, with the most recent June hurricane, Agnes, occurring that year. The last June tropical storm landfall was Tropical Storm Colin in 2016. Most June storms that affect Florida form in the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico, and El Niño conditions further reduce their chances of development.

These forecasts suggest that travel plans for the summer, especially in regions like Louisville that could be impacted by storms, may face fewer disruptions, while residents of Florida can expect a continued low risk of June hurricanes.