2026 FIFA World Cup Fuels Record Trading on US Prediction Markets

Prediction‑market platforms saw a surge in activity during June as the 2026 FIFA World Cup began. Kalshi reported roughly $9.4 billion in trading volume, up from about $5.3 billion in May, while Polymarket International processed about $4.3 billion, compared with $3.5 billion the month before. The tournament’s expansion to 48 teams created a larger menu of match‑related contracts, concentrating liquidity around high‑profile fixtures. For example, the Canada‑Morocco round‑of‑16 match generated more than $48 million on Kalshi and $26.8 million on Polymarket. Separate markets also tracked team‑advancement outcomes, pulling in multimillion‑dollar volumes.

A parallel surge appeared in the Golden Boot market, where traders placed roughly $1.5 million in a 24‑hour window betting on the top scorer. Kylian Mbappé led with odds of 52.5 % and Lionel Messi followed. The heightened activity underscores sustained global interest in the tournament, even years before it starts. At the same time, U.S. regulators continued to challenge prediction‑market operators, with the CFTC chair warning states against “illegal enforcement actions” that conflict with federal authority over commodity derivatives.