2026 World Cup favorites ranked by Opta supercomputer

Opta's supercomputer model has projected the probabilities of each national team winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup now that the tournament has reached the round of 16. The model gives France a 30 % chance to win and a 45 % chance to reach the final, making it the clear favorite. Argentina follows with a 14 % win probability, Spain with 13 %, and Brazil and England each with 9 %. Portugal is placed at the 5 % mark, while Morocco, Norway, Switzerland and Colombia each have about a 3 % chance. The forecast aligns with expectations, confirming France as the top contender.

These predictions are based on recent knockout‑stage results and team performance metrics processed by Opta's advanced analytics engine.