2027 Social Security COLA projected at 3.8% for U.S. retirees

Projections released by the Senior Citizens League indicate that the 2027 Social Security cost‑of‑living adjustment (COLA) will be about 3.8%, up from the 2.8% increase applied in 2026. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the final figure in mid‑October 2026, with the adjustment taking effect for benefits paid starting January 2027.

A 3.8% COLA would raise the average monthly benefit from roughly $2,084 to $2,163, adding about $79 to each retiree’s check. Spousal benefits would also climb, crossing the four‑figure mark for the first time. While the increase offers temporary relief, advocacy groups note that persistent inflation in housing, food and health care continues to outpace the adjustment, and higher Medicare Part B premiums may offset some of the gain.

The estimate is based on recent CPI‑W data for the third quarter, though two of the three monthly consumer‑price reports remain pending, leaving room for the final number to shift.