Colombia energy system faces drought and debt risks

energy security El Niño electrical grid thermal generation Colombia energy crisis

Colombia's electrical system faces significant stability risks due to the El Niño phenomenon and growing demand. The UPME projects a 10% increase in demand for the National Interconnected System between 2026 and 2030. To mitigate drought-related risks to hydroelectricity, the UPME will enable a second cycle for assigning surplus generation capacity starting August 24, 2026. XM has recommended maximizing thermal generation, estimating a need for 95 to 100 GWh daily during extreme drought to preserve water reserves.

Financial instability within the sector further complicates the situation. The energy distributor Air-e faces a massive debt crisis, with Andeg reporting total arrears of approximately $3.3 trillion pesos. Specifically, Air-e owes nearly $1 trillion pesos to thermal plants TEBSA and Termocandelaria. This liquidity crisis threatens the ability of generators to purchase fuel and maintain operations.

In response to energy scarcity, the CREG has established a transient incentive program via Resolution 101120 of 2026. This program, implemented by EPM group companies like Afinia, rewards users who reduce consumption below a set target to help manage demand during periods of low hydrology.

Entities

ACERA · Air-e · Andeg · Armando Cuello · Colombia · Ministerio de Ambiente y Energía · Ministerio de Minas y Energía · Ministry of Energy of Chile · Petromil · TEBSA · Termocandelaria · UPME

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.

[○ 1 SOURCE] The energy distributor Air-e owes approximately $3.3 trillion pesos to various agents in the sector. seguimiento.co
[● 2 SOURCES] A power outage in Colombia could cost approximately $250,000 million per hour. diariodelcauca.com.co · www.hsbnoticias.com
[● 2 SOURCES] The electrical system may require between 95 GWh and 100 GWh of daily thermal generation during extreme drought scenarios. diariodelcauca.com.co · www.hsbnoticias.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] The CREG established a transient incentive program for efficient energy use through Resolution 101120 of 2026. www.elpaisvallenato.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] The UPME projects that demand in Colombia's National Interconnected System will grow by approximately 10% between 2026 and 2030. www.valoraanalitik.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] UPME will enable a second cycle for assigning surplus electricity generation capacity starting August 24, 2026. construnoticias.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] Solar energy capacity in Colombia's effective supply grew from 2.5% to 10.5% over a three-year period. www.valoraanalitik.com
[○ 1 SOURCE] Air-e owes nearly $1 trillion pesos specifically to the thermal plants TEBSA and Termocandelaria. elnorte.com.co