Admiral Samuel Paparo outlines U.S. deterrence strategy for Taiwan

U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo has outlined a defense strategy centered on ‘deterrence by denial’ to prevent conflict in the Taiwan Strait. In recent interviews, Paparo emphasized that the primary goal of the U.S. military is not to win a war, but to build sufficient credible capability to ensure that Beijing believes an invasion would be unsuccessful, thereby preventing the need for combat.

If deterrence fails, Paparo proposed a tactical concept known as ‘Hellscape.’ This involves deploying a massive number of low-cost, mass-produced precision drones alongside traditional high-tech missiles to saturate the Taiwan Strait. Inspired by lessons from the war in Ukraine, this approach aims to deny an adversary the ability to effectively utilize battlefield space during amphibious or airborne operations.

The strategy comes amid the rapid expansion of the People's Liberation Army's naval and missile capabilities. While military simulations by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) suggest that the U.S. and its allies could repel an invasion, such a conflict would likely result in significant losses of ships, aircraft, and personnel. Paparo stated his objective is to maximize the cost of aggression to make the decision to initiate conflict unappealing to Beijing.