AfD leads Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern poll at 35%, ruling coalition falls short of majority

An INSA poll conducted between 11 and 18 June 2026 shows the far‑right AfD as the clear front‑runner in the upcoming Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern Landtag election, with 35 % support, a one‑point increase since March. The governing SPD gains 28 % (+2), the Left 11 % (+1), while the CDU drops to 10 % (‑2). Smaller parties register BSW 6 % (+1), Greens 4 % (‑1) and FDP 3 % (=). The poll, based on 1 000 respondents with a ±3.1 percentage‑point margin, indicates that the incumbent red‑red coalition of SPD and Left would lack a majority in the 71‑seat parliament.

With no clear majority, the formation of a new governing coalition will be challenging. A possible three‑party alliance of SPD, Left and CDU is deemed unlikely because the CDU has ruled out cooperation with the Left. Other scenarios, such as a SPD‑CDU‑Green pact, remain speculative. The state election is scheduled for 20 September 2026.