AfD Leads in German Election Polls Ahead of 2029 Vote

Recent opinion polls show the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) maintaining a clear lead over the CDU/CSU in Germany’s upcoming elections. An INSA poll conducted in June 2026 for the 2029 federal Bundestag election recorded the AfD at 29 % of the vote, with the CDU/CSU at 21.5 %, the SPD at 12.5 %, the Greens at 13 %, the FDP at 4 %, Die Linke at 10.5 % and the new Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) at 3.5 %. Similar figures were reported by Allensbach and Forsa, both confirming a gap of at least four points between the AfD and the CDU/CSU.

A separate Infratest dimap survey for the 2029 Brandenburg state election shows the AfD even stronger, at 37 % of respondents, while the SPD polls at 22 %, the CDU and Die Linke each at 12 %, the Greens at 6 % and BSW at 4 %. The poll’s theoretical seat distribution would give the AfD a dominant position in the 88‑seat state parliament.

Analysts note that, if these numbers translated into actual election results, the only viable governing coalition at the federal level would likely be the classic “traffic light” alliance of CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens, as any configuration without the AfD falls short of a majority. The strong showing of the AfD in both federal and state polls underscores a shift in German political dynamics as the 2029 elections approach.