AfD expands lead in German polls ahead of federal election

Recent opinion polls show Germany's far‑right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) widening its advantage over the governing coalition ahead of the September 2026 federal election. A RTL/n‑tv Trendbarometer survey conducted by FORSA in early August recorded the AfD at 28 % of the vote, a point ahead of the CDU/CSU bloc at 21 % and the SPD at 12 %. The same FORSA poll released in mid‑August placed the AfD at 26 % versus the CDU/CSU at 25 %, while a separate regional poll in Saxony‑Anhalt showed the AfD at 41 %.

State‑level data echo the trend. In Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, an NDR‑commissioned survey for the May 13 state election gave the AfD 36 % of the vote, ahead of the SPD’s 27 % and the Left Party’s 13 %. The governing coalition led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU‑SPD) is described as under unprecedented pressure, with analysts noting growing voter frustration over economic and migration issues. Regional coverage also highlights security concerns about disinformation campaigns, including alleged Russian influence on the election.

These polling developments suggest a significant shift in German politics, with the AfD emerging as the strongest opposition force and the incumbent coalition facing a challenging path to retain power in the upcoming national and regional elections.