AfD surge in Saxony‑Anhalt elections challenges German establishment

Polling ahead of the September 6 state election in Saxony‑Anhalt shows the right‑wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) surpassing the 40 % mark, outpacing the combined vote of the CDU/CSU and SPD. If confirmed, AfD could become the largest party in the state and potentially produce the first post‑war German minister‑president from a party the federal establishment labels extremist.

The rise follows a broader national decline for the governing parties, with the CDU falling to about 21 % and the SPD to roughly 12 % in recent surveys. The traditional “firewall” – a formal agreement among established parties to refuse any coalition with AfD – is being tested as coalition formation becomes increasingly difficult. The same electoral cycle includes votes in Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern and Berlin later in September, which together may reshape Germany’s political landscape and signal the erosion of the post‑war consensus that has long underpinned federal governance.