AfD Leads German Polls as CDU Slips, Prompting Coalition Talks

AfD CDU Saxony-Anhalt polls 5% threshold

Recent opinion polls show the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) emerging as the strongest party in Germany. A Verian‑Emnid poll conducted on 31 July 2026 gave the AfD 27 % of the vote, while a Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll a few days later recorded 28 %. In the eastern state of Saxony‑Anhalt, an Infratest Dimap survey found the AfD at 41 % – the highest level of any party in the state – with the CDU falling to 24 % and the Union (CDU/CSU) at a historic low of 21 % in the national Verian poll.

The BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht’s party) remains below the five‑percent threshold, polling at about 4 % in Saxony‑Anhalt, prompting discussion of its potential role as a king‑maker in coalition talks. The surge of the AfD has also revived debate over the electoral “5‑percent hurdle”. Legal scholars and former constitutional court president Hans‑Jürgen Papier have argued for lowering the threshold to three percent, while other politicians warn that a lower barrier could further fragment parliament.

Bundesumweltminister Carsten Schneider warned that a public “fear debate” about the AfD could unintentionally boost its support, urging instead a focus on sober, democratic campaigning, especially in eastern Germany.

Entities: Alliance 90/The Greens · Alternative für Deutschland · Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) · Carsten Schneider · Christian Democratic Union · Christian Democratic Union (CDU) · Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) · Germany · Hans‑Jürgen Papier · Saxony-Anhalt · Saxony‑Anhalt · Social Democratic Party (SPD)

Claims

What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.

[○ 1 SOURCE] The 5 % electoral threshold caused about 14 % of votes to be unrepresented in the last Bundestag election. (Analysis article discussing the 5‑percent hurdle.)
[○ 1 SOURCE] AfD leads the latest Bundestag poll with 27 % (Verian/Emnid). (Verian/Emnid poll dated 31 July 2026.)
[○ 1 SOURCE] BSW (the Wagenknecht party) could become a king‑maker in Saxony‑Anhalt if it enters the parliament. (Analysis of potential coalition impacts.)
[● 2 SOURCES] CDU/CSU polls at 21 % (Verian/Emnid) and 23 % (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen). (Two July 2026 polls.)
[○ 1 SOURCE] In Saxony‑Anhalt landtag poll, AfD at 41 % and CDU at 24 %. (Infratest Dimap poll for Saxony‑Anhalt, 31 July 2026.)
[○ 1 SOURCE] AfD leads the latest Bundestag poll with 28 % (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen). (Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll dated 31 July 2026.)
[○ 1 SOURCE] Lowering the electoral threshold to three percent would bring two additional parties into the Bundestag. (Opinion piece on threshold reform.)
[○ 1 SOURCE] If AfD reaches just under 40 % in Saxony‑Anhalt, it could secure an absolute majority. (Commentary on Saxony‑Anhalt election dynamics.)
[● 2 SOURCES] Legal scholars and former constitutional court president Hans‑Jürgen Papier have advocated lowering the electoral threshold from five to three percent. (statement)
[○ 1 SOURCE] AfD received 28 % support in the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll of 31 July 2026. (poll)
[● 2 SOURCES] BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht’s party) polled at 4 % in Saxony‑Anhalt, below the five‑percent threshold. (poll)
[○ 1 SOURCE] The CDU/CSU recorded 21 % support in the Verian poll of 31 July 2026. (poll)