AfD unlikely to win power in upcoming eastern German state elections

Cultural Minister Wolfram Weimer said the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) will not become the governing party after the upcoming state elections in eastern Germany, including Saxony‑Anhalt, Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern and Berlin. He pointed to a recent INSA poll that puts the AfD at 41 % in Saxony‑Anhalt, ahead of the CDU (23 %), The Left (13 %) and the SPD (6 %). Weimer argued that voters will reject a shift to the far right despite earlier stronger showings in Baden‑Württemberg and Rhineland‑Palatinate.

In Mecklenburg‑Vorpommern, SPD leader Manuela Schwesig faces a possible defeat as current polls show the SPD at 29 % versus the AfD at 36 %. Schwesig heads a red‑red coalition with The Left, and a loss would be a blow to the national SPD, which is polling around 12 % and lagging behind both the AfD and the CDU/CSU.

These trends suggest the AfD will remain strong but short of governing majorities, while the SPD’s regional foothold is under serious threat.