African Union mediation tested by rising Tigray tensions

Escalating tensions between the Ethiopian Federal Government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) are straining the African Union’s (AU) ability to mediate the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement. Both parties have accused each other of military mobilization, and disputes persist regarding contested territories, disarmament, and the return of displaced persons.

Human Rights Watch has urged the AU to intensify its engagement and assess whether the current mediation process, led by High Representative Olusegun Obasanjo, remains effective. The organization also called for the AU Monitoring, Verification and Compliance Mechanism to publicly report on compliance with the 2022 agreement, citing concerns over military activity and civilian abuses. Recent reports have documented heavy fighting near the Sudanese border involving artillery and drone strikes, as well as allegations of forced recruitment of civilians, including children, by the TPLF.

In response to regional instability, the AU Peace and Security Council has emphasized the need to strengthen the Continental Early Warning System to better bridge the gap between identifying risks and taking preventive action.