Agricultural trade and margins shift for NZ and US livestock sectors

New Zealand sheep and beef farmers are expected to see strong red meat returns through 2026-2027, though Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) warns that profit margins may tighten. Forecasts suggest average farmgate prices for lamb and beef could decrease by 8% and 4.5% respectively, while farm expenditure is expected to rise by 4.2%. Despite a projected 20% drop in average farm profit before tax compared to the 2025-2026 season, returns remain well above the five-year average.

B+LNZ chair Kate Acland noted that the exceptional results of the previous season provided a turnaround after several years of losses, allowing many businesses to repay debt and reinvest. The economic impact of the sector is significant, with sheep and beef farmers and processors spending approximately $64 million daily on goods and services in New Zealand.

In the broader agricultural landscape, the United States is seeking to expand its market share in the mature livestock markets of Australia and New Zealand. USDA Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke Lindberg identified opportunities to supply ingredients such as dried distillers’ grains and soybean meal to support these heavy livestock industries. Expanding these exports would create additional demand for U.S. corn and soybeans.