Air Freight Rates Projected to Rise 5‑15% in 2026 Amid Middle East Conflict

A survey of 180 Asia‑Pacific shippers shows 71% expect higher air and ocean freight volumes in the second half of 2026, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, port congestion and regulatory delays. Monthly shipment delays are reported by 59% of respondents, with 16% experiencing weekly disruptions. The same market pressures are reflected in Xeneta’s 2026 Air Freight Outlook, which revises its forecast to a 5‑15% increase in air‑freight rates after the escalation of the Middle East conflict removed about 12% of global air‑cargo capacity in early 2026. Demand grew 4% in the first half of the year, outpacing constrained capacity growth and lifting global air‑cargo rates by 17% year‑on‑year, while spot rates surged nearly 40% in May before stabilising. Growth is further bolstered by shipments linked to artificial‑intelligence hardware, especially semiconductors, even as e‑commerce exports from China decline and European Union regulatory changes tighten low‑value import thresholds.

The combined outlook suggests freight forwarders and logistics providers will need to adopt flexible strategies, monitor capacity constraints and geopolitical developments, and potentially adjust pricing as market tightness persists into the latter half of 2026.