Airbus forecasts high demand for new aircraft through 2045

Airbus’ latest Global Market Forecast (GMF 2026-2045) predicts a global demand for 42,060 new passenger aircraft over the next two decades. Approximately 47% of these deliveries, totaling 19,820 aircraft, will be to replace existing jets. This increase in the replacement cycle is attributed to post-Covid fleet aging, as aircraft remained in service longer due to production struggles and delivery delays.

In Africa, the demand is projected to reach 1,640 new passenger aircraft by 2045, consisting of 1,310 single-aisle and 330 widebody models. This growth is driven by demographic expansion, economic development, and rising trade. Passenger traffic in Africa is expected to nearly triple, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.9%. Ethiopia is highlighted as a major growth market, with passenger traffic forecasted to increase almost sixfold between 2025 and 2045.

Globally, Airbus expects the proportion of latest-generation aircraft in the worldwide fleet to rise from roughly 39% in 2026 to nearly 100% by 2045.