Alagoas elections: Renan Filho and JHC tied in polls

Recent polling and legal developments are shaping the 2026 electoral race in Alagoas. A Real Time Big Data survey indicates a technical tie between Renan Filho (MDB) and JHC (PSDB) for the governorship. In a stimulated first-round scenario, Renan Filho holds 46% of the votes compared to JHC’s 43%. In a simulated second round, Renan Filho leads with 47% against JHC’s 43%. The survey also shows a highly competitive race for the two Senate seats, with Renan Calheiros (MDB), Marina JHC (PSDB), Arthur Lira (PP), and Davi Davino Filho (Republicanos) all within the margin of error.

Simultaneously, the Regional Electoral Court of Alagoas (TRE-AL) suspended a right of reply previously granted to JHC against Renan Filho. This decision follows the release of new documents in the ‘Caso Master’ investigation, which suggest JHC was the legal representative of Iprev during a period when R$ 97 million was transferred to Banco Master. The investigation is currently being handled by the Supreme Federal Court (STF).