Alberta projects $2B surplus following surge in oil prices

Alberta has projected a $2 billion surplus for the 2026–27 fiscal year, a significant reversal from the $9.4 billion deficit forecasted in February. This turnaround is primarily driven by surging oil prices, specifically West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, which has averaged above US$73.50 per barrel due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Finance Minister Jason Nixon noted that the province’s revenue is expected to reach $86.3 billion, an $11.4 billion improvement over previous estimates. The surge in non-renewable resource revenue is a key factor in this shift. While the province remains in a negative cash position with $4.3 billion in cash adjustments, the Heritage Savings Trust Fund is projected to reach $32.1 billion this year, with a target of $35 billion by 2027.

Despite the windfall, officials warned of market volatility and global trade uncertainty. Nixon emphasized the need for fiscal discipline, stating the government will not commit temporary revenues to permanent expenses. The province is also considering ways to provide relief to citizens facing a rising cost of living driven by the same energy price increases.