Alberta separation could cost up to $170 billion, report finds

An independent report by the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, commissioned by the Alberta government, indicates that the cost of Alberta separating from Canada could reach up to $170 billion within the first five years.

The study evaluates two hypothetical paths: a “smooth” scenario involving quick and favorable negotiations, and a “difficult” scenario characterized by protracted and unfavorable terms. In both cases, the report warns of significant short-term economic disruption. Establishing a new nation is estimated to cost between $50 billion and $170 billion initially, alongside broader impacts on fiscal stability and economic growth.

Under the “difficult” scenario, the long-term consequences are severe. The report suggests that after 20 years, Alberta’s GDP could be 16.2% smaller than if it had remained in Canada, with employment potentially dropping by 10% in the short term and remaining nearly 5% lower two decades later. Additionally, individual workers could face significantly higher taxes and lower annual wages compared to staying within the Canadian federation.