Amazon rainforest faces increasing climate extremes and El Niño drought risks

Climate extremes are increasingly affecting even the most well-preserved areas of the Amazon rainforest. A study published in Communications Earth & Environment indicates that while the southern “deforestation arc” experiences the fastest warming and highest vegetation loss, the most extreme climate shifts are occurring in the north-central region, which possesses greater forest cover.

Researchers suggest that global greenhouse gas emissions are driving instability in these remote areas, independent of local deforestation. The study, involving institutions such as IPAM, NASA, and various international universities, emphasizes that nations outside the Amazon bear responsibility for the forest's ecological imbalance.

Compounding these concerns, the El Niño phenomenon threatens to intensify drought conditions in the Amazon through 2027. Federal monitoring agencies warn that the phenomenon may cause reduced rainfall and elevated temperatures, particularly in the north-central parts of Brazil. This combination of factors increases the risk of prolonged dry periods, lower river levels, and a higher vulnerability to forest fires.