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Brazil 2026 elections: Regional polls show tight races
As the 2026 Brazilian elections approach, various regional polls and campaign activities are shaping the political landscape. In Bahia, an AtlasIntel/A TARDE survey shows Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) leading ACM Neto (União Brasil) with 49% of the vote to 45.9%, though they remain technically tied. In the presidential simulation by Meio/Ideia, Lula holds a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro.
In Amazonas, Omar Aziz (PSD) and Roberto Cidade (União Brasil) are in a close race for the governorship, with a Pontual Institute poll showing Aziz at 29.5% and Cidade at 26.9%. Meanwhile, candidate Isael Munduruku (Rede) has outlined a platform focused on the forest economy and environmental protection. In Pará, the race for governor features Hana Ghassan (MDB) and Dr. Daniel Santos (Podemos) in a tight contest.
Other regional updates include Sergio Moro leading the race for the Paraná governorship in an ADI-PR poll, and a highly competitive Senate race in Paraíba, where João Azevêdo (PSB) holds a strong lead, leaving a tight battle for the second seat between Veneziano and Nabor Wanderley. In Mato Grosso do Sul, Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) leads the Senate race according to Ranking Brasil Inteligência.
Entities
ACM Neto · Amazonas · Bahia · Dr. Daniel Santos · Flávio Bolsonaro · Hana Ghassan · Instituto Pontual · Jerônimo Rodrigues · Lula · Omar Aziz · Roberto Cidade · Sergio Moro
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] João Azevêdo leads the Senate race in Paraíba with 39.9% of valid votes. cbnparaiba.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Delegado Charles leads the race for the Federal Chamber in Piauí with 7.74%. blogdobsilva.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Omar Aziz leads Roberto Cidade in the Amazonas gubernatorial race with 29.5% to 26.9%. oconvergente.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Sergio Moro leads the Paraná gubernatorial race with 38.2% of the votes. folhadolitoral.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Hana Ghassan leads the Pará gubernatorial race with 48.6% in the first round. ndmais.com.br
- [DISPUTED] In the Bahia gubernatorial race, Jerônimo Rodrigues leads ACM Neto with 49% to 45.9% in valid votes. feirahoje.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In a presidential simulation, Lula holds 39.4% and Flávio Bolsonaro holds 38.4% for the first round. feirahoje.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Reinaldo Azambuja leads the Senate race in Mato Grosso do Sul with 30%. www.capitalnews.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The survey has a margin of error of two percentage points. feirahoje.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] In a second-round simulation, Lula holds 48.5% and Flávio holds 48%. feirahoje.com.br
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Lula leads Flávio Bolsonaro with 39.4% to 38.4% in the first round of the presidential simulation. feirahoje.com.br
- [DISPUTED] In valid votes, Jerônimo Rodrigues holds 50.7% compared to ACM Neto's 47.5%. feirahoje.com.br