Analysts debate potential Trump administration policy toward Cuba

Analysts are debating the potential impact of a second Donald Trump administration on Cuba, with varying views on whether his approach would be a genuine policy shift or a political tool for domestic voters. Analyst Camilo Venegas suggested that Trump’s focus on Cuba may serve as a political talking point to secure votes in Congress.

In contrast, Jorge de Armas compared a potential Trump strategy to economic pressure used against Iran, aiming to induce internal collapse through economic means rather than direct military intervention. De Armas noted that while the possibility of regime change remains a topic of discussion, Washington’s capacity to address the issue may be limited by other geopolitical priorities.

Addressing the internal state of Cuba, De Armas highlighted a profound structural crisis, suggesting the country requires a total rebuilding. He criticized the erosion of civic consciousness under the current regime and addressed recent controversies within the exile community regarding activist Luis Manuel Otero Alcántara. Additionally, regional tensions were noted following the expulsion of nine Cuban diplomats by authorities in the Dominican Republic.