Putin's Rule Under Strain amid Russia's War‑Driven Economic Crisis

German economist Klaus Keupp warns that the war in Ukraine is draining Russia’s economic future, noting a recession, likely falsified inflation data and the depletion of the National Welfare Fund that financed the conflict. He describes a war‑focused economy that produces goods destined for destruction, leading to soaring food prices and a shortage of skilled workers.

Swedish military intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson says the strategic confrontation with the West runs deeper than any single leader, and while there is no immediate political alternative, public frustration is growing amid elite uncertainty.

Forbes commentator Melik Kaylan predicts Putin could lose power within three years if military setbacks, elite splits, civil unrest or a shift in Chinese support materialise. He cites possible attacks on the Kerch Bridge, fuel shortages and the erosion of public confidence.

Russian exile journalist Alexander Nevzorov adds that worsening fuel supplies and a looming food crisis are increasing popular discontent, prompting harsh information controls and the prospect of further mobilisation. Across these analyses, experts converge on the view that Russia’s war‑induced economic strain and internal elite pressures could precipitate a regime change within the next few years.