Andrzej Poczobut warns against expecting a political reset with Belarus

Journalist and Polish minority activist Andrzej Poczobut warns that recent signals from Minsk do not indicate a political reset in relations with Warsaw. He characterizes the current shifts as a controlled thawing of relations intended to serve the Belarusian government's economic interests and facilitate dialogue with the West.

This assessment follows statements by Belarusian Major General Andrei Lukyanovich, who noted the exchange of warnings regarding flights near the border, marking a shift in tone from previous propaganda regarding Polish aggression. Poczobut suggests that while technical and military communication channels may open due to geographic necessity, the fundamental nature of the Belarusian regime remains unchanged. He advises Poland to maintain vigilance, noting that tactical signals should not be mistaken for a political breakthrough, especially given the ongoing crisis and the status of political prisoners.