Arab minority turnout could decide Israeli election outcome

The turnout of Israel’s Arab minority, which comprises approximately 21 percent of the population, could play a decisive role in upcoming elections and subsequent coalition negotiations. Political leaders from the Arab community are urging high voter turnout to facilitate the removal of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government.

Mansur Abbas, leader of the United Arab List, stated that the community could help ensure the formation of a new government capable of bringing change. While polls suggest a diverse bloc led by former military commander Gadi Eisenkot could win the most votes, it may lack the necessary mandates for a majority. This would necessitate support from Arab parties, either through coalition membership or external assistance.

However, a significant hurdle remains: Gadi Eisenkot has previously ruled out forming a government with Arab parties, citing a lack of shared values and their refusal to designate Hamas as a terrorist organization. If no functional government can be formed, Israel may face political deadlock, potentially leaving Netanyahu in power until new elections in 2027.