South American agriculture: Soybean trends and climate impacts

Agricultural developments in Paraguay and Argentina show varying trends for the upcoming seasons. In Paraguay, President Santiago Peña has proposed a strategy to export soybean production directly to international markets, specifically targeting Asia to secure better prices for producers and reduce reliance on large commercial intermediaries.

Soybean cultivation in Paraguay’s Chaco region has seen a significant recovery, with the area increasing by over 50% to 163,844 hectares for the 2026 campaign, rebounding from previous drought-related declines.

In Argentina, the agricultural sector faces both opportunities and technical challenges. While sunflower margins are looking positive in certain regions, soybean producers face a 34% productivity gap between current yields and potential maximums. The corn season has commenced, with planting underway, while the 2025/26 harvest is nearing completion at approximately 92.5%.

Climate factors remain a critical variable. The AgroENSO platform, developed by researchers from CONICET and INTA, highlights how El Niño conditions are expected to persist, potentially impacting major crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. Farmers are advised to focus on management and technology to mitigate climate-driven yield variability.