Argentina agricultural outlook improves despite El Niño

Argentina is emerging as a global agricultural exception as the El Niño phenomenon threatens harvests in other major producing regions. According to reports from S&P Global, increased rainfall has improved local production prospects for both soy and corn, contrasting sharply with Brazil, where soy estimates have been reduced by 6 million tons to 177 million tons.

In Argentina, soy production projections have risen by 4 million tons to reach 55 million tons. Corn production is also expected to see a roughly 3% improvement. This positive outlook stands in opposition to other major producers; for instance, Australia faces a potential 21% drop in wheat production.

Additionally, the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario projects record corn exports for Argentina during the 2025/26 campaign, potentially reaching 45 million tons. This growth is supported by reduced supply from competitors like Ukraine and Brazil, as well as competitive pricing in European and Asian markets.