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Argentina faces recession risk as economic activity and employment decline
Argentina faces an increasing risk of a technical recession following a 2.9% monthly drop in economic activity in July. This decline follows a 0.6% contraction in GDP during the second quarter of 2026. Economists, including Claudio Caprarulo of Analytica, warn that unless significant growth occurs in August and September, the country will enter two consecutive quarters of contraction.
Simultaneously, a report from the University of Buenos Aires (UBA) highlights a disconnect between economic activity and employment. While the Monthly Estimator of Economic Activity (EMAE) grew by 5.6% since November 2023, registered private employment has fallen by 329,667 workers. The study notes that eight of the ten sectors experiencing the highest growth under the Milei administration actually saw job losses. The manufacturing industry has been particularly hard hit, losing over 80,000 jobs, accounting for nearly half of the total registered employment destruction.
Other sectors, such as mining and agriculture, show growth but have limited capacity for large-scale job creation. Meanwhile, traditional employment hubs like industry, commerce, and construction continue to struggle. The Universidad Torcuato Di Tella has placed the probability of a recessionary phase within the next six months at 82%.
Entities
Argentina · INDEC · Javier Milei · Universidad Torcuato Di Tella · University of Buenos Aires
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The manufacturing industry has lost over 80,000 registered jobs since November 2023, representing an 8% cumulative decline. infopilar.com.ar
- [● 2 SOURCES] Registered private employment in Argentina has decreased by 329,667 workers since November 2023. red23noticias.com.ar · infopilar.com.ar
- [● 2 SOURCES] Economist and deputy Martín Lousteau stated that August and September must see 2.9% monthly growth to avoid a formal recession. www.santotomealdia.com.ar
- [● 2 SOURCES] Argentina's GDP decreased by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the first quarter. www.eleco.com.ar · www.perfil.com
- [○ 1 SOURCE] The Universidad Torcuato Di Tella estimated an 82% probability of Argentina entering a recessionary phase within the next six months. www.eleco.com.ar
- [● 3 SOURCES] Claudio Caprarulo, director of Analytica, warned that the base scenario for the Argentine economy is a technical recession. www.santotomealdia.com.ar · www.elsol.com.ar
- [● 4 SOURCES] Economic activity in Argentina fell 2.9% in July compared to June on a seasonally adjusted basis. www.eleco.com.ar · www.elsol.com.ar · www.perfil.com
- [● 2 SOURCES] A study by the University of Buenos Aires found that eight of the ten sectors with the highest growth under the Milei administration experienced job losses. red23noticias.com.ar · infopilar.com.ar