South American birth rates decline, impacting education and policy

South American nations are facing significant demographic shifts due to sharply declining birth rates, impacting education and social policy.

In Argentina, UNICEF reports that births fell 47% between 2014 and 2024. This trend is particularly acute in the province of Buenos Aires, where fertility rates are projected to drop from two children per woman in 2010 to approximately one by 2040. This decline is expected to cause a massive contraction in school enrollment; in Buenos Aires, the initial education level could lose over 100,000 students by 2027. Similarly, in Jujuy, the birth rate has plummeted by more than 50% since 2015, a trend already affecting private school enrollments.

In Chile, the population of children aged 0 to 5 decreased by nearly 20% between 2017 and 2024, representing a loss of approximately 300,000 children. Research from the Fundación Colunga Observatory highlights a gap between the demographic weight of early childhood and the resources allocated to it, noting that while education budgets have increased, spending specifically for early childhood education has seen declines in certain areas.