Argentina economic indicators show moderating inflation and shifting market trends

Argentina is experiencing a period of economic shifts characterized by moderating inflation and fluctuating market sectors. According to the Central Bank’s Market Expectations Survey (REM), inflation for August is estimated at approximately 1.7%, a decrease from previous months. This deceleration has allowed traditional fixed-term deposits to yield positive real returns for the first time in over a year, outperforming both inflation and the rise in the official dollar price.

Currency projections suggest the official exchange rate will remain relatively stable, with experts forecasting a value of approximately 1,630 pesos by December. While the government aims to control volatility, the gap between the exchange rate and inflation remains a key focus for analysts. Economic growth for the year has been revised downward to 2.1%.

In the industrial and commercial sectors, the outlook is mixed. The automotive industry saw a 26.3% increase in production in August compared to July, though year-on-year figures remain challenging. The used car market experienced a 7.3% decline in transfers compared to the previous year, driven by cautious consumer spending and high credit costs. Additionally, commercial vacancy rates in Buenos Aires rose by 4% during the July-August period, reflecting ongoing shifts in urban retail activity.