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[BUSINESS] · Argentina · 32 sources

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Argentina faces potential technical recession amid falling consumption

Argentina is facing a potential technical recession, with market analysts projecting a 1% contraction in GDP for the third quarter of 2026. While some sectors showed slight recovery in August—manufacturing rose 1.9% and construction grew 0.4%—these gains were insufficient to offset significant declines in July.

Mass consumption has plummeted across all 24 jurisdictions, with no province returning to 2023 levels. Supermarket sales at constant prices fell 15.8% between January and July 2026 compared to the same period in 2023. The decline is most severe in the Northeast (NEA) and Northwest (NOA) regions, which saw drops of 32.8% and 27.3%, respectively.

Economic pressure is compounded by a loss of purchasing power. While private salaries have remained relatively stable against general inflation, they have lost between 27.5% and 38.3% of their value when measured against regulated prices such as utilities, fuel, and transport. Additionally, private salaried employment fell in 22 of 24 jurisdictions between November 2023 and April 2026.

Entities

Argentina · Axel Kicillof · Central Bank of Argentina · Cristina Kirchner · Fundación Encuentro · Javier Milei · Luis Caputo · Management & Fit · Patricia Bullrich · World Bank

Claims

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Sources

El espejismo de la economía [diarioelcentinela.com]