Argentina soybean area projected to expand as maize acreage declines

Projections for Argentina’s 2026/27 agricultural cycle indicate a shift in crop preferences, with soybean acreage expected to expand at the expense of maize. According to the Bolsa de Comercio de Rosario (BCR), maize area is projected to decrease by 7.3%, or approximately 600,000 hectares, primarily in the northern part of the country. This reduction would leave maize with an estimated 10.4 million hectares and a projected production of 66 million tons.

The 600,000 hectares diverted from maize are expected to be transitioned to soybean cultivation, bringing soybean area to 16.7 million hectares with a projected production of 48 million tons. Factors contributing to this shift include rising production costs, logistics issues, and pests such as the 'chicharrita'.

In the commodity markets, Argentine producers are already hedging for the 2026/27 soybean campaign. Open positions in the Rosario May 2027 soybean contract and July 2027 second-crop soybean contract have exceeded 700,000 tons. This hedging activity reflects a desire for price certainty amid global geopolitical and logistical volatility. The Rosario May 2027 contract recently averaged 339.9 USD per ton, up from 296.2 USD per ton during the same period last year.