Argentina's 2026/27 grain outlook shows rising margins and disease risk

The Rosario Stock Exchange released a model projecting net margins for the 2026/27 season. For wheat and second‑year soy on owned land, the margin is estimated at US$531 per hectare, dropping to US$59 on leased land. First‑year soy shows US$436 on owned land and a loss of US$14 on leased land, while early corn margins are US$450 and US$41 respectively. The analysis stresses that all costs, especially the opportunity cost of land, must be included to assess profitability.

BASF’s xarvio platform advises wheat and barley growers in the Pampas to monitor disease risk closely. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange expects a record‑size wheat harvest of 6.5 million ha and 21.3 million tonnes, potentially the third largest in Argentine history, and 1.35 million ha of barley yielding 5.25 million tonnes. Adequate soil moisture and a 90 % chance of an El Niño event raise the likelihood of fungal infections, prompting targeted fungicide applications based on weather forecasts, crop stage, and variety susceptibility.