Argentina's economic recovery uneven as youth unemployment stays high

Private banks in Argentina acknowledge a strong macro backdrop in the second half of 2026 – a historic trade surplus of US$3.5 billion in May and US$11.8 billion in the first five months, fiscal balance and rising export earnings from mining, lithium, Vaca Muerta and agriculture. Yet they warn the recovery is “two‑speed”, with limited spill‑over to household consumption and employment. BBVA, Banco Galicia and Banco Supervielle note that sectors driving the surplus are capital‑intensive and generate few jobs, while credit‑card arrears signal that many families have not yet felt the benefits.

Labour‑market data from INDEC show the overall unemployment rate at 7.8 % in Q1 2026, but the gap widens sharply for the 14‑29 age group. Young women face a 15.5 % unemployment rate and young men 14.6 %, roughly double the rates for adults aged 30‑64. Together, people under 30 account for almost half of the unemployed, highlighting persistent structural challenges despite the macroeconomic gains.