Argentina's grain output projection to 177 Mt by 2035 and record low soybean price coverage in 2025/26

A study by the Fundación Producir Conservando estimates that Argentina could produce around 177 million tonnes of grains by the 2034/35 season if it expands sowed area by about 21 % and sustains yield gains. The outlook relies on continued adoption of technology, direct‑seeding, improved genetics and stronger logistics, while emphasizing the need for macro‑economic stability, reduced export taxes, and investment in infrastructure. Export earnings from the agro‑industrial complex could reach USD 75‑85 billion, provided the sector improves value‑addition, biofuel production and market diversification. Environmental sustainability is highlighted as a constraint, with soil erosion and nutrient depletion requiring better rotation, direct‑seeding recovery and new technologies.

Meanwhile, the current 2025/26 soybean campaign shows only 21 % of the anticipated harvest with firm price contracts, the lowest level recorded since the 1994/95 season. Official data indicate total soybean sales of 18.1 million tonnes, of which 10.4 million tonnes are priced and 7.6 million tonnes remain unpriced. Domestic demand is weak, with the Rosario board price at USD 326.7 per tonne versus the theoretical export‑industry purchasing power of USD 321 per tonne. Open interest in Rosario futures is also minimal, reflecting uncertainty about prices that may rise later in the year.