Artificial intelligence poised to reshape global trade and economy

Artificial intelligence is emerging as a major structural driver of the global economy, poised to reshape trade, productivity, and value creation. Industry leaders suggest this could represent the “greatest boom in the history of global trade,” as AI reduces the costs of product development and service delivery, allowing smaller entities to compete with multinational corporations.

Economically, AI acts as a dual shock to both supply and demand. On the supply side, it is expected to increase productivity and lower production costs. On the demand side, it may boost investments, financial market valuations, and consumption. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) projects that global capital expenditures related to AI could soar from approximately $500 billion today to between $3 trillion and $4 trillion by 2030.

However, this rapid evolution presents significant challenges for central banks and policymakers. The complexity of AI's impact makes it harder to assess key economic indicators, such as potential GDP and output gaps, complicating the formulation of monetary policy. Additionally, there are growing concerns regarding digital inequality, the concentration of computational power in few hands, and the need for regulatory frameworks, such as the European Union's AI Act, to balance innovation with rights protection.