Arvind Virmani maintains 7% GDP growth forecast for India

Arvind Virmani, a member of NITI Aayog, has maintained his annual GDP growth forecast for India at 7%, with an uncertainty range of plus or minus 1%. While India recorded 7.8% growth in the first quarter of FY27, Virmani cautioned against adjusting full-year projections based solely on quarterly data.

Virmani noted that the economy faces significant risks from global developments and unresolved trade issues. He emphasized that uncertainty is an inherent part of macroeconomic conditions and should be factored into projections.

Regarding digital payments, Virmani suggested that while initial subsidies were vital for the growth of the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) as a public good, the policy should now transition toward a cost-based system for Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) transactions.