ASML shares plunge on Chinese DUV production, but analyst maintains Outperform rating
Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group, a Chinese state‑owned company, began serial production of immersion DUV lithography machines. It plans to ship five units in 2026 and twenty in 2027 to Chinese chipmakers SMIC, Hua Hong and CXMT.
The announcement triggered a sharp market reaction. ASML’s share price fell about 9% on 27 July, wiping more than €60 billion off the Dutch lithography specialist’s market value – roughly a ten‑percent decline. Analysts such as JPMorgan flagged a long‑term risk to ASML’s China business, which accounts for around 20% of annual sales (about €9 billion). Other analysts, however, argued the impact on revenue would be limited to a few percent and called the price drop an over‑reaction.
Despite the volatility, Bernstein Research kept its “Outperform” rating on ASML, setting a €2,500 price target and citing strong growth prospects, pricing power and margin expansion as reasons to view the stock as a top Q3 pick.
Entities: ASML Holding NV · Bernstein Research · JPMorgan · SMIC · Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how well corroborated each claim is across sources.
- [● 2 SOURCES] First customers are SMIC, Hua Hong and CXMT. (Initial buyers)
- [● 2 SOURCES] ASML’s share price fell about 9% on 27 July. (Stock movement)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Other analysts consider the impact on ASML’s revenue to be limited to a few percent and label the stock fall an over‑reaction. (Analyst consensus)
- [● 2 SOURCES] The firm plans to ship five machines in 2026 and twenty in 2027. (Production schedule)
- [● 2 SOURCES] Shanghai Aishengna Electronic Technology Group started serial production of immersion DUV lithography machines. (Chinese state firm begins DUV production)
- [○ 1 SOURCE] Bernstein Research maintains an “Outperform” rating on ASML with a €2,500 price target. (Analyst rating)
- [● 2 SOURCES] ASML’s market capitalization fell by more than €60 billion after the news, about a 10% drop. (Market reaction)
- [● 2 SOURCES] JPMorgan sees a long‑term risk to ASML’s China business, representing about 20% of annual revenue (~€9 billion). (Analyst risk assessment)