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Brazil presidential polls show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in tight race as Augusto Cury surges
Recent presidential polling for Brazil's 2026 election shows a shifting landscape. According to the Nexus/BTG Pactual survey, incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the first round with 39%, followed by Senator Flávio Bolsonaro at 33%. The survey highlights a significant surge for writer and psychiatrist Augusto Cury, who rose to 11% in the same poll, making him the first third-way candidate to reach double digits in the first round.
In second-round simulations, the race is highly competitive. The Nexus/BTG Pactual poll indicates a technical tie between Lula (46%) and Flávio Bolsonaro (45%). Conversely, the AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey shows Lula maintaining a lead with 47.1% against 42.6% for Flávio Bolsonaro, though this margin has narrowed compared to previous months.
Augusto Cury's rise has been accompanied by a massive increase in digital engagement, including a significant spike in Google searches and millions of new Instagram followers. Cury has denied allegations of using artificial means, such as bots, to boost his presence, describing his momentum as a ‘silent revolution’ of voters seeking an alternative to political polarization.
Entities
AtlasIntel · Augusto Cury · Avante · Band TV · Flávio Bolsonaro · Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · Nexus/BTG Pactual · PL · Ulysses Guimarães
Claims
What the coverage asserts, and how many sources carry each claim.
- [● 4 SOURCES] Qualitative research from two major parties indicates that presidential candidate Augusto Cury is gaining sympathy among women and elderly voters. www.cbnsantos.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] While Cury is not considered a realistic candidate for victory, he may capture a portion of the female vote by October 4.
- [● 4 SOURCES] Cury is being categorized by marketing analysts under the 'bom velhinho' (good old man) pattern, similar to Ulysses Guimarães in 1989. www.cbnsantos.com.br
- [● 3 SOURCES] Augusto Cury's growth in popularity followed his participation in television debates on Band TV and other networks.
- [● 15 SOURCES] In the Nexus/BTG Pactual poll, Augusto Cury reached 11% of the presidential voting intentions. www.jornalcidade.net · didigalvao.com.br · www.blogdobrunomuniz.com.br · noticiaexata.com.br · jornaldosmunicipios.com.br · +8 more
- [● 10 SOURCES] The AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll shows Augusto Cury grew from 1.6% to 7.8% of voting intentions. www.congressoemfoco.com.br · www.diariodeaparecida.com.br · teixeiranews.com.br · diariodopara.com.br · portalbnu.com.br · +3 more
- [● 2 SOURCES] Augusto Cury stated he spent only R$ 20,000 on online content boosting. ibandrn.com.br
- [● 12 SOURCES] In the first round, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads with 39%, followed by Flávio Bolsonaro with 33%. www.jornalcidade.net · www.blogdobrunomuniz.com.br · noticiaexata.com.br · didigalvao.com.br · jornaldosmunicipios.com.br · +5 more
- [● 2 SOURCES] Google searches for Augusto Cury increased by 900% in the week following the presidential debate. didigalvao.com.br · www.congressoemfoco.com.br
- [DISPUTED] In a second-round simulation between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula has 46% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 45%. www.jornalcidade.net · www.blogdobrunomuniz.com.br · noticiaexata.com.br · jornaldosmunicipios.com.br · portalnoticiasgoias.com.br · +4 more
- [DISPUTED] In a second-round scenario, Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 45.1% against 44.5% for Lula da Silva. jovempannewscampinas.com.br
- [DISPUTED] In a second-round simulation, Lula leads with 47.1% against 42.6% for Flávio Bolsonaro. www.diariodeaparecida.com.br · teixeiranews.com.br · portalbnu.com.br · jornaloexpresso.com · eldiarionica.com