Australia e-commerce to reach $127 billion by 2030

Australia’s e-commerce market is projected to expand from US$89 billion in 2025 to US$127 billion by 2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of 7%.

A significant shift in payment methods is expected during this period, with digital wallets such as PayPal, Apple Pay, and Google Wallet forecast to account for 50% of Australia’s e-commerce transaction value by 2030, up from 43% in 2025. This trend is also anticipated at physical points of sale, where digital wallet usage is projected to rise from 21% to 32%.

As digital wallets gain market share, traditional card usage is expected to decline. Debit cards are forecast to fall from 37% to 31% of e-commerce transactions, while credit cards are expected to drop from 26% to 22%. Buy now, pay later (BNPL) services, including providers like Afterpay and Zip, are expected to remain significant, with their share of online spending projected to rise slightly from 13% to 14%.