Australia migration proposals could increase national debt by $275 billion

An analysis using Parliamentary Budget Office tools indicates that proposed migration reductions in Australia could have significant fiscal and economic consequences. Under a three-year negative migration scenario proposed by One Nation leader Pauline Hanson, Australia’s national debt could increase by an additional $275 billion, and the federal budget would likely remain in deficit for over a decade.

The report suggests such measures would reduce economic output by $212 billion by the middle of the next decade, resulting in 820,000 fewer taxpaying workers. Mathias Cormann, head of the OECD and former Coalition finance minister, warned that setting arbitrary migration caps could contradict the needs of an ageing population requiring increased spending on health, care, and defence.

While public anxiety regarding immigration levels has grown, industry groups in sectors such as hospitality and healthcare have expressed concern. The healthcare sector, in particular, relies heavily on migrant labour for essential services.