Australia on track for record wettest El Nino year

Australia is on track to record its wettest El Nino year on record, defying typical climate patterns. While El Nino and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole usually bring drier conditions, current rainfall is exceeding long-term averages. The nation's winter was the wettest for an El Nino year in 35 years, and national winter-spring rainfall is currently running above average.

Significant weather events have already occurred, including over 100mm of rain in Sydney and flash flooding in Queensland. Destructive winds have also been reported in Alice Springs. Meteorologists forecast continued unsettled weather, with more than half the country expected to see showers and thunderstorms over the coming week. Parts of Queensland and northern New South Wales are particularly at risk for intense thunderstorms and flash flooding.

The Bureau of Meteorology reported that the latest weekly relative El Nino index reached 2.81°C above average for the week ending October 11, surpassing the previous record of 2.78°C set in November 2015. Experts suggest warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures around the Australian region are providing the additional moisture driving these high rainfall totals.