Australian jobs data outlook amid renewed US‑Iran conflict

Australia’s labour market is expected to remain resilient, with unemployment projected to hold at about 4.4 % in June after a strong addition of 40,000 jobs in May. Economists at Citi forecast a slowdown in job growth to around 20,000 and note that the participation rate stayed at 66.7 %. ANZ economist Aaron Luk says a modest drop in the number of unemployed could push the rounded unemployment rate down to 4.3 %, while NAB chief economist Sally Auld sees early signs of softening that could see the rate drift higher later in the year.

The outlook is clouded by a re‑escalation of the US‑Iran conflict, which has pushed Brent crude back to roughly US$85 per barrel and raised concerns about further disruptions to oil supplies via the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. Analysts warn that higher oil prices could pose an upside risk to Australian inflation, potentially prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider a rate hike in November after the August meeting. Dr Auld expects Brent to trade between US$70 and US$90 in the near term.