Australian retailers dispute smoking data as illicit tobacco market surges

The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare’s 2025 National Drug Strategy Household Survey reported a drop in daily smoking prevalence to a record low of 5.6%, a decline from 8.3% in 2022‑23. The Australian Association of Convenience Stores (AACS) challenged the survey’s validity, noting that Australian Bureau of Statistics data show a near‑20% rise in tobacco consumption over the same period. AACS chief Theo Foukkare said, “Both can’t be true,” and warned that the illegal market is harming legitimate retailers and community safety.

Independent analysis highlighted that about 80% of nicotine products in 2025 were illicit, driving an $8.5 billion annual spend and fueling violent crime, including roughly 300 arson attacks and several murders since 2023. Law‑enforcement seizures of billions of cigarettes and millions of vapes have not curbed the market. Border Force commander Ken McKern remarked, “unfortunately, we can’t seize this problem away.” Experts call for urgent policy revisions, including tax adjustments, to address the resilient black market.

The dispute underscores a widening gap between self‑reported smoking surveys and actual consumption, with retailers urging the federal government to act on the growing illicit trade.