Ontario weather forecast predicts warmer autumn temperatures

Environment and Climate Change Canada has released a three-month probabilistic forecast for Ontario covering September through November 2026. The models suggest a significant chance of above-normal temperatures, particularly in southern Ontario and the Greater Toronto Area, where there is a 40 to 50 per cent probability of warmer-than-average conditions. The likelihood of higher temperatures increases further north, with areas near Hudson Bay showing an 80 to 90 per cent chance of above-normal warmth.

While southern Ontario has a 30 to 40 per cent chance of experiencing near-normal temperatures, there is a smaller 10 to 20 per cent probability of below-normal temperatures, with slightly higher chances near Ottawa and Lake Erie. These findings contrast with predictions from the Old Farmer's Almanac, which anticipates a cooler September for southern Ontario before temperatures rebound later in the season.